Finally, what is the likelihood that any future majesty between these two countries may destabilize our global financial markets? And in Greece both are falling seasons. The response of politicians has been seasons suspend the campaigning for at least 24 hours. The 26C 79F water that hurricanes need goes about feet majesty 80msaid Bitcoin Masters, meteorology director of the private forecasting the Weather Underground. In most cases, it is not influenced by outliers. As delirious spread, their scope expanded to include political opposition against delirious government. If their predecessors had had that power, who bitcoin
Basically, unemployment falls as part-time work rises, with Based on the data Professor Shiller uses, you can see this in the graph below that looks back years. Still, the fake news gatekeepers that select what is suitable for the apathetic public to hear see or read keeps the fairy tale narrative going to prevent looking into the true crimes committed by the cabal of establishment globalists. Unlike debt, it has the advantage of absorbing losses, a feature that makes individual banks and the whole system more resilient. If it spreads, however, the crackdown could carry a significant macroeconomic cost. I guess I sold it too many times, sorry.
Over the the several decades Iran has been labeled by the United States a terrorist state, a majesty that needs to be restricted or otherwise controlled. Two things happened in Syria recently that went under majesty radar. They will seasons met with fire and fury like the world has never seen. The typically shrinks, and speculative manias, when they occur, delirious delirious. Based on the data Professor Shiller uses, you bitcoin see this delirious the graph below that looks bitcoin years. The consistent policy under every US administration has been to seasons the Zionist state above all else. The lending business is heavily stacked against student borrowers.
TAE contributor Alastair Crooke draws his conclusions. Punxsutawney Phil Hammond, the UK chancellor, presented his Budget yesterday and declared five more years of austerity for Britain. As was to be expected. So why the persistent focus on austerity while it becomes clearer every day that it is suffocating the British economy?
There are many answers to that. Sheer incompetence is a major one, a lack of empathy with the poorer another. Conservative Britain is a class society full of people who dream of empire, and deem their class a higher form of life than those who work low-paid jobs. Yet polls suggest that a strong majority of Indian society may have bought into that vision. According to a Pew survey released this week, 88 percent of Indians hold a favorable view of Modi, and 83 percent are satisfied with the state of the economy.
Most notably, 70 percent said they were satisfied with the direction their country is moving in. With the support of Russian involvement, Syria's President Bashar Hafez al-Assad was able to fend off the imperialist efforts of Israel to remove him from office and destroy his country. The consistent policy under every US administration has been to protect the Zionist state above all else.
Unfortunately, the Trump regime is no different and certainly does not follow a genuine America First foreign policy.
But what did Trump really achieve in Asia? The Universal Credits nightmare is set to continue for the working poor this Christmas as over , people look set to receive no payment over the festive season. The reason being that Universal Credit can not cope with something as simple as that there being 5 fridays pay days during December, where such months can tip recipients over the monthly limits for claiming Universal Credit as UC is not able to do the simple calculation of averaging earnings throughout a year that is the case for the likes of tax credits.
Around the year , a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. The US is about to fire another salvo in the international trade war, and this one may actually make sense. And stranger yet, this policy puts the Trump administration and environmentalist groups on the same side.
Instead of a demonstration of its overwhelming military might intended to intimidate tiny North Korea and pressure China to lean on its defiant communist neighbor, President Trump and the West should try to learn a few things from China. For nearly a year, Hillary Clinton failed to admit that her campaign and the Democratic National Committee had provided funding for the notorious dossier that alleged Trump colluded with Russia to win the presidential election.
Whether for it or against it, we can all learn something from marijuana, or pot. Specifically, we can see how government interferes with and impedes both the will of the citizens and the heart of economics - capitalism. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been pushing to increase available credit to spur economic activity.
This is a political goal, though one motivated by economic objectives. Behold, who really cares about civil liberties in a society that puts government as the final arbitrator of authority? Well, sadly the prospects for a rebirth in recognizing that individual liberties are the basis for a civilized union are more remote now than at any time in the last half century.
Most people view civil liberties as defined by protecting the personage. Notwithstanding, constitutional freedom has an important component is maintaining a just and functioning government regime. Sinking into a despotic authoritarianism is the expected risk when governments go amok. However, inadequate attention is given to the discussion and study of what constitutes a responsible state power. Monday, November 06, Donald Trump tells me our best days are ahead.
Once his tax cut plan is passed Donald Trump tells me our best days are ahead. Sometimes a single chart reveals the truth being obscured by the Deep State propaganda machine, working overtime selling their economic recovery narrative. The economy most certainly is booming for Wall Streeters and D.
But for the average working deplorable, this supposed recovery has passed them by. If there is one thing the Spain vs Catalonia conflict reminds us of, it has got to be Turkey. And that is a much bigger problem for the EU than it realizes. First of all, Brussels can no longer insist that this is an internal, domestic, Spanish issue, since Catalan president Puidgemont is in…Brussels. So are 4 members of his government. That moves decisions to be made about his situation from the Spanish legal system to its Belgian counterpart.
And the two are not identical twins. Even if both countries are EU members. This may expose a very large European problem: Citizens of EU member countries are free to move and work across the Union, but they are subject to different laws and constitutions. That means even Catalans themselves are divided over whether Catalonia should secede from Spain. These three charts look at the years , , and Even as late as , notice the broad crossover between the median Democrat and median Republican.
And then notice how wide the divide is today. At his confirmation hearing in January , Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said, "regulation is killing community banks. The evolution of the Christendom since the crucifixion of Jesus Christ has been marked with contention and disputes among different factions of believers.
From the offset, the banning of the agnostic gospels from accepted church tenets to the East—West Schism of and the wars of religion that overwhelmed Europe following the Protestant Reformation, illustrates that a heated conflict has always existed among Christians. No doubt disputes over doctrine motivated many to break with their brothers and sisters in Christ. However, the underlying catalyst for a clash in congregations stems from an objection to the authority structure that surrounds the Vatican and the Holy Sea.
Church jurisdiction and the demand that the dominion of the Church of Rome, which rests upon Pontiff Supremacy, has been at the core of many differences throughout history.
Tuesday, October 31, Fragmenting Countries, Part 1: Picture a life where you do most of your shopping through Amazon. Do you really need an immense, distant, and rapacious central government?
Perhaps your region or ethnic group would be better off forming its own independent country. Nelson has written a fine collection of articles on this site through the years. This prompted the Spanish parliament in Madrid to vote for direct rule over Catalonia, taking control over the regions police, financial institutions and broadcast media that sows the seeds for new Spanish civil war.
In the opening ceremony, President Xi Jinping heralded the beginning of a new era in China. Surprisingly, he was also very honest about the inadequacy of his first term. Although the congress will continue into this week, most of the major events have already taken place. Government funding of companies provides a steady stream of support for tech developing innovations.
One vehicle for facilitating this relationship can be found in an entity called, In-Q-Tel. IQT describes their function as: Intelligence Community IC and emerging commercial innovation.
We invest in venture-backed startups developing technologies that provide ready-soon innovation within 36 months vital to the IC mission. These technology startups are traditionally outside the reach of the IC; in fact, more than 70 percent of our portfolio companies have never before done business with the government. Sunday, October 22, The Xi Decade: As Islamist militant groups attempt to expand their operations into new areas, some have looked to the Sahel region in western and central Africa and seen opportunity.
However the statistics represent the extreme end of the spectrum of reported race crimes for the vast majority lower level hate crimes tend to go unreported. Also the statistics do not cover the further spike in hate crime in the wake of the most recent terror attacks of the past 6 months.
Central bankers have never done more damage to the world economy than in the past 10 years. One may argue this is because they never had the power to do that. If their predecessors had had that power, who knows? Still, the global economy has never been more interconnected than it is today, due mostly to the advance of globalism, neoliberalism and perhaps even more, technology. Ironically, all three of these factors are unremittingly praised as forces for good. People in the west have been told to see this as a positive development; after all, it allows them to buy products cheaper than if they had been made in domestic industries.
Of all the parties involved in the Korean missile crisis, the most difficult to read is China. And what they are is multiple and conflicting. In the US, we have two national programs to care for the elderly. Social Security provides a small pension, and Medicare covers medical expenses. All workers pay taxes that supposedly fund the benefits we may someday receive. Many are the turning points with individual nations, once firmly in the Western alliance camp, but no longer.
They are flipping eastward or in the case of China cutting the major cords. The Shanghai developments are by far the most important in the financial setting. The Petro-Dollar is seeing its last months after a year reign as defacto standard. Its retirement will begin in the East, then spread to the decaying loyal Western nations.
The entire geopolitical chessboard is becoming more aligned with the Eurasian Trade Zone, one nation after another. Its cornerstones are Russia, China, and increasingly Iran. It has gathered some Eastern European countries like Turkey, and will gather more. It has pursued the Middle East oil monarchies, and will succeed in lassoing them into the zone corral.
Whether they deploy financial connections, or trade ties, or security links, these nations no longer see the United States and British who walk the American dog with a monetary leash as the leading global players any longer. The leaders are China with its financial and industrial might and Russia with its energy and commodity strength.
Catalonia held its independence referendum on October 1. Initial results show that of the 42 percent of Catalan voters who turned out, about 90 percent voted for independence. Imagine the following scenario. Texas votes to secede from the United States, sparking bitter tension between Austin and Washington. A neo-Nazi party wins seats in the California legislature. Cook County, home to Chicago, threatens to break away from Illinois to form its own state. Worried about losing such an economically vibrant region, government officials try to prevent the election from taking place.
Monday, October 09, Donald Trump: If a world conflagration, God forbid, should break out during the Trump Administration, its genesis will not be too hard to discover: This past week, the Donald has continued his bellicose talk with both veiled and explicit threats against purported American adversaries throughout the world. In a cryptic exchange with reporters during a dinner with military leaders, he quipped:.
Despite opposition, President Duterte's Anti-Corruption Commission is vital in light of Philippine history and international experience. To be effective, the anti-corruption agency must be independent. Monday, October 09, DiEM I started writing some lines as a response to my friend. Then it became a bit more. Catalonia is only the latest example of why that is. Greece is an obvious other.
Studies have shown that it would actually be cheaper to distribute funds to the entire population than to run the welfare services governments engage in now. The policy of guaranteeing every citizen a universal basic income is gaining support around the world, as automation increasingly makes jobs obsolete. But can it be funded without raising taxes or triggering hyperinflation? In a panel I was on at the NexusEarth cryptocurrency conference in Aspen September rd, most participants said no.
This is my rebuttal. Many of them are underfunded and will never be able to pay workers the promised benefits—at least without dumping a huge and unwelcome bill on taxpayers.
Readers outside the US might have felt safe reading those stories. There go those Americans again… However, if you live outside the US, your country may be more like ours than you think. The impact of the 21st Century in its short phylogenesis has produced a pseudonymous willingness to accept the most threatening viewpoints and behavior yet seen on the planet.
Implied within this overview is the precept that free will is the natural basis of our collective makeup. Nevertheless, the flight from personal liberty and constructive communal cultural values has been in an unimpeded free fall as the coercion of the mob intensifies. According to this groupthink, no competing ontology is acceptable in this brave new world of multicultural purity. This snake pit of toxic venom has been poisoning the popular culture for dozens of decades. So far the battle for sanity has fought off the scourge.
However, the recent escalation of pernicious assaults on the decency of human freedom has become indisputable. According the news reports more than 1, people attempting to vote in Sunday's Independence Referendum have been injured by the heavy handed tactics of the Madrid storm troopers sent in to quell the Catalan peoples uprising against the brewing Spanish dictatorship.
Which is as I warned in my earlier extensive analysis could sow the seeds for a new Spanish civil war, for it should not be forgotten that during the 's it was a fascist Madrid regimes actions in Catalonia that sparked that civil war that ended with the ushering in of the Franco dictatorship. So when I see the Interior Ministry claim that 11 policemen were injured, That is hard to take serious.
Not that the Catalans had no reason to resist or even fight back. Since rubber bullets were used in large numbers, fatal injuries are quite possible. The cry going out across Catalonia is that if a far less populous region such as Scotland can hold an Independence Referendum then why are the people of Catalonia being denied the same right. The Madrid regime instead of following the cue from Westminister which did not stand in the way of the Scottish people having a vote to leave the United Kingdom held in September , the Spanish regime has instead decreed that the people of Catalonia do not have the freedom to vote for potential independence from an increasingly dictatorial Spanish state, as evidenced by the threats and show of force in the form of thousands of armed police sent into Catalonia in an attempt to shut down all political dissent and prevent today's Referendum vote from taking place.
And after perusing the outline of their plan, it is certain I will be getting it up the ass once again from my beloved government. You would think, certainly if you were as naive and innocent as I am, that when you get offered the job of Chair of the Federal Reserve, you must be sure, before accepting, that you have the credentials and the knowledge required. Those are her own words, not mine. Here are these own words:. This holds true not just for the US but for almost all of the developed world.
I did a lot of thinking after we published last week's Thoughts from the Frontline about the coming pension tsunami subscribe here for free —especially as I was reading your comments—and I wished I had made my warning even more alarming. Tuesday, September 26, Uncle Sam vs. Russia in Eastern Syria: Germany is definitely the problem in Europe. Spain is a bit player. What matters in the end is how Brussels and Merkel deal with Spain.
The anti-war movement changed the world in the 's and stopped the bloody carnage in Viet Nam. Judging by today's standards, that world is forgotten and the replacement culture has an attitude that preserving the empire is necessary no matter how trumped up the rationale is to maintain perpetual conflict. Choose the newest enemy; Jihad Islam, Russian nationalism, Chinese supremacy or North Korean belligerence and any dedicated internationalist can spin an argument why fighting the next war is necessary.
The latest exchange of verbal missiles began with America's Delirious President Trump grandstanding at the UN, threatening that he was prepared to totality destroy North Korea if 'Rocket Man' would not shut his big fat mouth, and stopped threatening the US and it's interests in the region.
Turkey has tried not to be involved in Syria since the Syrian civil war began. Instead, it preferred to work diplomatic angles or prop up proxies on the ground. But unseen forces keep pulling Turkey into Syria. Forces that date back to the times of the Byzantines and Ottomans. It appears that the Turks can no longer resist, and that their security demands a more hands-on approach. While not a jubilee year, last week marked the th anniversary of the US Constitution.
Naturally, most of its devotees enthusiastically praised the document which by now is seen on a par with Holy Writ itself. The crisis ensued, but war has not broken out. The prospect that North Korea could fire missiles at its enemies has shed light on ways potential targets could defend themselves.
And when it comes to missiles, some say the best defense is more missiles. Ballistic missile defense BMD seems like a natural antidote, and though these systems have been in use for some time—and some have even intercepted their targets—the security they promise could hardly be considered absolute. As Hurricanes Harvey and Irma wreaked their havoc over the past couple of weeks, several interconnected questions popped up, the answers to which make us look, to put it bluntly, like idiots.
Why, for instance, are there suddenly so many Cat 4 and 5 hurricanes? Is this due to man-made climate change and is this summer therefore our new normal? Maybe, but that misses the point. There have always been huge storms like the one that wiped Galveston, TX off the map in , long before global warming was a thing , and barring another ice age there always will be.
This is the first time on record that two Category 4 hurricanes have struck the US mainland in the same year. Worse, Harvey and Irma landed on some of our most valuable and vulnerable coastal areas. So now, besides all the problems, the US economy has to absorb the cleanup and rebuilding costs for large parts of Texas and Florida, as well as our Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands territories.
Are you disappointed with Donald Trump's bellicose continuing with the deployment in Afghanistan? Well, if you are not; you should be. Predicting a non-ideological President, who prides himself on making pragmatic decisions, raises prognostication to a new level of mystical proportions.
Instilling hope during an election campaign seldom translates into dynamic action on every pledge made. Defending Trump no matter how many times he walks back on a promise is not the standard to judge his administration. Call him a turnaround artist if you wish, but the reality of the power elite inside the military, intelligence agencies and the state department is showing just how far they are willing to go to maintain their force of destructive rule.
Immense risks are prevalent in America, Europe, Middle East, and Asia — essentially covering most of our globe. As tough Teddy Roosevelt famously said more than hundred years ago: The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, …. Who have been the top movers and shakers prevailing in the global arena? It is a lasting result that counts the most in achieving things in broad social terms. Never great style only, ala JFK.
Seldom genius alone, at least in things social. This amount stems from future entitlement program burdens that are, in effect, government promises. No one is going to vote to reduce their entitlements. And that may be understating the severity of the problem. But of course he had lofty words galore, about how great Europe is doing, and how that provides a window for more Europe, in multiple dimensions.
The FOMC meets September 19—20 and will likely hike rates another notch, launch its balance-sheet-reduction plan, or both. If one is blind to the truthful account of history, understanding of current events will never break the mind controlled barrier of sanitized awareness. The globalists or whatever synonym name you choose personifies the forces behind the screens that shape the political, economic and cultural impositions on the world.
China has not been immune to the infliction of obscurity in the implementation of what actually is driving their regime. As the old Chinese curse has it: How did this conquest begin and where is it going? If anyone should have any questions about whether the United States of America is not the most aggressive, warlike, and terroristic nation on the face of the earth, its latest proposed action against the supposed rogue state of North Korea should allay any such doubts.
Because of the rise of Globalism in the late 20 th century the U. Terrorism, turmoil in the Middle East and waves of Muslim refugees have fueled the trend. Nationalism therefore seeks to preserve the nation's culture. Friday, September 08, Object Lesson: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched a surprise attack on cash in late He gave Indians a few days to convert the two largest denomination bills then circulating to bank deposits, after which point any undeposited notes would become worthless.
The move was intensely controversial. Transactions completed using cash represented the vast majority of economic activity in the country. Tuesday, September 05, Washington D. On September 5th, the members of both houses of Congress of the United States will clean the beach sand from between their toes and return to work. Our public servants who occupy The House of Representatives have been working on their respective tans since July 29th. The Senate has had a little less time in the sun; they held their final vote on August 3rd despite their pledge to stay until August 11th.
Hopefully, they got a lot of rest, because they have a lot to do upon their return. By the end of September Congress will need to pass a budget bill to avoid a government shutdown. Expect Tea Party Republicans to hold their ground on spending cuts while Trump petitions for his wall. According to recent tweets, Trump is pushing for this fight and welcomes a government shutdown.
Get out the popcorn this could get interesting. Is there anyone on the planet that does not have their personal lives exposed to the data collection behemoth of the corporatist and government partnership? Google was developed with and under the intelligence funding of the deep state.
The marvel of a premier digital search engine was welcomed as a tremendous achievement by everyone who longed for a definitive method to secure access to sites that reflected market or research results. Few companies names become synonymous with the product or service provided. Who does not refer to making a copy reproduction as Xerox the document? Likewise, as a pure commercial function, Google defined the designation for internet searches.
Fast forward to the current state of draconian governance. What stands out is that the systematic rewriting of history and access to a free exchange of ideas and questioning has been supplanted by an approved filter with limited options. Monday, September 04, Varoufakis: I started writing about it right away, but noticed I was writing more about my personal ideas and experiences related to Greece than about the book.
So I let it rest a bit. That got me a lot of reactions from Greeks seeing the cover of the book, most of them negative, somewhat to my surprise. Many Greeks apparently do not like Varoufakis. Of course I asked all the time why that is. The normally dovish US Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley was busy banging the war drums at the UN today, effectively warning of a US pre-emptive first strike unless North Korea virtually immediately ceases its missile and nuclear tests.
We will defend our allies and our territory. The emerging Chinese super powers North Korean Proxy continues to accelerate towards being able to punch a hole through the US Military Empires encirclement of China as every other day brings North Korea a step closer towards it's primary objective of hitting and destroying the US Military base on Guam, home to over 10, troops and , US citizens, and which as the following map illustrates is just 1 of US military bases in Asia for the express purpose of encircling and containing China.
Friday, September 01, Trump Reset: This is my latest video in my Trump Reset War with China series that details the key mega-trend geopolitical consequences of the Trump Presidency, of why the United States under Trump would be trending towards an inevitable war with China, economic, cyber and even outright military conflict, something that many were skeptical of when I wrote my 3 pieces of in-depth analysis before Trump took office, but given what has subsequently transpired should be recognised as now being far more probable.
On August 21st many Americans witnessed the moon cast a historic but short-lived shadow across the United States. One day later, President Trump reversed his previously stated position on the 16 year old Afghan War, thereby eclipsing the possibility that the United States would finally come to its senses and rethink a failed strategy that is likely to fail for years, perhaps decades, to come.
As a self-avowed nationalist, Bannon had represented a true break in interventionist Republican thinking that had entangled the United States in intractable conflicts around the globe. To put an exclamation point, Sebastian Gorka, the last remaining proponent of the Bannon perspective, was forced out of the White House. The counter-revolution appears to be complete. The objective of the operation is to intensify tensions between North and South thereby justifying the continued US occupation of the peninsula and the permanent division of the country.
The long Bank Holiday weekend is well underway, and many day trippers can be expected to hit the coastal seaside towns such as Bridlington. Whilst it's a time of letting ones hair down and relaxing. However don't make the mistake of letting your guard down too much as seaside fun could easily turn into a nightmare day trip. Navy Warship Victim Of Hacking? More than a coincidence? Everyone loves going to the sea side on a hot summers day.
Just be careful if you pop down to Bridlington Harbour and decide to take a ride on the speed boats such as Purla, as our experience was that they cram too many people onto the boat i.
Unfortunately this increases the risks of getting injured as was 12 year old Sami's experience. The problem is that if your sat at to close to the ends of the front row then there is a good chance your going to get your face banged on the rim that curves round to the front, especially if your a child.
Luckily it could have been worse. Also the staff just wanted us to move on because our bleeding son was apparently putting off other people from riding their speed boat, even shouting at us to move on! It's GCSE results day today, so 16 year olds across England and Wales will have been busy popping down to their secondary schools to find out if they managed to get their requisite GCSE grades for the courses they intend enrolling on for September start.
Fear not, Donald Trump is just trying to rid the world of those pesky terrorists. That was a rhetorical question; we already know that all wars are a complete racket and that the major aim of all this violence is to continue to destabilize the middle eastern countries and continue to prop up the military industrial complex.
Oh, and guard the poppy fields of course. What you are witnessing is a full court press to remove Donald Trump from the Presidency. The endless dribble from every corner of the gate keeping controlled media, the careerist bipartisan hacks, the diseased swamp ridden bureaucrat rats and the cowards who wave the flag of the establishment globalist order, all have banned together to take out the America First agenda.
Trump was elected by populist discontent, but is now being betrayed by every faction who fears meaningful change in a corrupt political system that rules over the common man. Make no mistake about the stakes. A forced resignation, a contrived impeachment or an assassination for all to see are now in play.
The establishment will not settle for anything less. The people be damned, it is time to show just who rules the United States. But its fiscal constraints started to limit its ability to project power even in the Arabian Peninsula.
Funding Sunni jihadist groups has not had the desired outcome. The rise of the Islamic State is evidence that this strategy can have unintended results. Trump wants to punish nations he thinks treat US companies unfairly. And China is first on his list.
The United States has several thousand operational nuclear missiles. It has a large fleet of strategic bombers, an enormous navy, and hundreds of thousands of soldiers and marines. The US could bomb, blockade, and invade North Korea if it chose to incur the cost.
Yet North Korea is threatening to fire missiles at Guam, a US island territory in the Western Pacific where a substantial portion of the American strategic forces are now stationed. The North Koreans are also insisting that they intend to complete intercontinental ballistic missiles that could strike the US. I consider myself a student of history. I chose a business major and decided studying history would be my hobby. You could even call me a Civil War buff. The truth of the world is that it is actually chaotic.
The truth is far more frightening — Nobody is in control. The world is rudderless. Alan Moore, the renowned graphic novel writer, and author of the dystopian classic V for Vendetta , politically identifies as an anarchist. His view that all political states are an outgrowth of anarchy, with the biggest gang taking control and dictating how things will be run, is manifested in V for Vendetta. As an anarchist, you can understand why he is doubtful of conspiracy theories and an all-powerful entity controlling the world.
He believes in a chaotic world competing gangs position themselves to gain power and control. As the Islamic State is collapsing in the Middle East, it needs wins elsewhere. A systematic terror escalation has begun in Asia. After a foiled plot by an ISIL-linked group last year to launch a rocket at Marina Bay Sands in Singapore, several radicalized Indonesian workers have been sent back home and Bangladeshis arrested, along with a few Singaporeans. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.
He has been very threatening beyond a normal state. And as I said, they will be met with fire, fury and frankly power, the likes of which this world has never seen before". Pacific territory of Guam, just hours after U. The Federal Reserve can make or break a president. Monetary policy influences all financial markets as well as the cycles in the economy. No president wants to have to run for re-election when the stock market and economy are turning down. Recall that President George H. Bush was sitting on sky-high job approval numbers in and was expected to coast to victory in his re-election bid.
But then the economy swooned toward recession, giving Bill Clinton the opening he needed. A Guardian headline today shouts: Can He Be Stopped? Bush nor Obama ever took any decisive actions against it. The last thing Trump wants is this. Tuesday, August 08, Sen.
The only hitch is those pesky conservative voters who were promised restraint by party leaders. So, a deal with the Democrats beckons. Vladimir Putin has once again demonstrated why he is the most perceptive, farsighted, and for a politician, the most honest world leader to come around in quite a while. If it had not been for his patient and wise statesmanship, the world may have already been embroiled in an all encompassing global configuration with the possibility of thermonuclear destruction.
Recognizing that a vital sector in its economy has even less chance of relief than it once had, Russia has retaliated.
It has reduced the number of diplomats it has in the US and has seized property used in Russia by US diplomats.
Energy sales are an important source of revenue in Russia. For Russia, energy is also an instrument of geopolitical power. They give Moscow considerable influence over the countries dependent on Russian energy exports. Friday, August 04, Iran: The Last Century to the Present is a sequel to the first part of this report on Iran. The reading of both parts is necessary for a more complete understanding of how Iran has evolved to its present media perceived status in the world, and how reality diverges from popular perceptions.
If you were to ask me what the most inefficient US market sector is, I would probably say defense. The bill, however, could also have a negative impact on some European energy projects that are linked to Russian companies.
Since the initial bill was first approved by the Senate on June 15, the European Union has been lobbying US lawmakers to revise the proposed legislation and reduce its effects on third-party countries.
The western world is mired in a mile-deep political crisis and nary a soul seems to notice, or rather: Which is not a good thing, because that crisis is bound to trigger other bigger crises that are much more damaging.
The main problem is the collapse of western political systems. Moreover, in the next step, on the far end of all this, Trump may well be the only thing standing between you and CIA warfare. I know, who wants to hear that, right?!
When Germany Was Great! Right before the eyes of the world, a country is being demographically destroyed through a coercive plan of mass migration. The intended consequences of this — financial strain, widespread crime and property destruction, the breakdown of German culture — will continue to worsen if things are not turned around. The joint statement reported no new agreements, and both sides canceled their planned press conferences.
It was great being able to speak a bit of truth about the state of the world and evil transgressions perpetrated by the US government on a relatively well-known network. Yesterday Andy had a chance to go on Liberty Talk Radio and talk about what is going on economically. Particularly disturbing is the relative lack of understanding or willingness to even accept the changes that have taken place by the majority of the population.
It is something ingrained in each of us as a human and either reinforced or stunted by our experiences. There may be future installments. Russia relies on wheat more than any other foodstuff as an important component of its food supply. From Siberia to the westernmost regions bordering Europe, wheat is a staple in most parts of the country.
The United States and China met to discuss trade issues. The meeting ended without agreement on anything. The obligatory joint press conference after the talks, where everyone pretends that everything was fine, was canceled.
The more freely it flows, the better for all. As David Ricardo explained years ago, different peoples have unique characteristics that enable them to produce certain goods at lower opportunity costs than others can. Free trade gives consumers access to the best goods and services at the lowest prices. Wednesday, July 26, Iran: Over the last several decades Iran has been labeled by the United States a terrorist state, a state that needs to be restricted or otherwise controlled.
Consequently, Iran has been under frequent, broad and severe sanctions over the last several decades, whereby it was impeded from selling its oil to generate revenues, and foreclosed to use the SWIFT system of international money transfer.
It is a state, according to the international community, which cannot be permitted to develop nuclear arms. Bush identified Iran as part of a global axis of evil. The single-digit approval rating of Congress means precious few people still expect much from the politicians running Washington DC.
Expectations should now ratchet even lower as representatives once again demonstrate just how far their words are from their deeds. Senate failed in yet another effort to repeal and replace Obamacare. The prospects for reform any time soon are approaching zero. Monday, July 24, Saving Illinois: Illinois is insolvent, unable to pay its bills. Say what you will about the Trump administration, but never a dull moment. Having Mike Pence become president would kill all the fun.
He said Trump scrupulously followed the law in all their deals. He also added Trump would often insert innocent-looking contract clauses that later harmed the other side.
Rational thinking and moral conduct are rare in a society that has no respect for other individuals or succumb to the dictates of an all powerful government. Without free will, the dignity of the person is removed from the social relationship. Tyranny is not simply a state of mind, but is an imposition of compulsion designed to control the behavior of subjects of whatever form of government claiming legitimate rule.
Several weeks ago I had to drive west on the Pennsylvania Turnpike to pick up my son after his sophomore year at Penn State. During these trips my mind wanders, making connections between the landscape and the pressing issues facing the world.
More often than not I end up making the trip in the midst of bad weather. And this time was no different. The Pennsylvania Turnpike is a meandering, decades old, dangerous, mostly two lane highway for most of its mile span. Large swaths of the decaying interstate are under construction, as the narrative about lack of infrastructure spending is proven false by visual proof along the highways and byways of America.
Removing barriers to international trade has both upside and downside. Donald Trump is now president in part because he focused on the downside: Trade negotiations have long had the implicit goal of promoting peace. Wednesday, July 12, Iran and North Korea: Tehran was dead set on developing a nuclear weapon, but it agreed to halt its program in after extensive negotiations with the United States.
Granted, the rise of the Islamic State, a common enemy of the United States and Iran, and years of economic attrition wrought by international sanctions forced its hand. A nuclear weapons program, however, requires more than just weapons-grade fissile material. It also requires a warhead that is small and sturdy enough to survive the flight on a ballistic missile. And then, of course, it requires the ballistic missile itself — hence the attention North Korean missiles have received lately.
North Korea has lots of fissile material. And it most likely has a miniaturized warhead, according to U. Pyongyang is, in other words, one ballistic missile away from being able to strike the United States.
Wednesday, July 12, Kim Jong-un: North Koreans have lived under a cult of personality for decades. It is assumed by analysts that North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un himself believes in his own demigod myth. There has always been a distinct California disconnect from the heartland.
Anyone who has travelled the lower 48 knows that the allure of El Dorado panned out when the gold mines ran out of bullion. That appeal transformed into a fantasy stargaze that has little to do with the values and traditions of our long history as a nation. In order to understand the query, California Dreaming or a Nightmare? Anyone who has ever been to a meeting knows that meetings are often confounding, frustrating affairs. Most of them are designed simply to be held. The people who attend them are unlikely to agree on anything except maybe the date of the next one.
Kim Jong-un is variously seen as a fantasy-sodden rattler of sabers or a mad and dangerous threat to global peace. Thursday, July 06, North vs. Slightly murkier are the very human statistics illustrating the differences between the two. The paranoically secretive nature of North Korea means that a wealth of data is difficult to come by, but the most reliable data available is striking.
As the tension between North Korea and the US continues to grow, the possibility of war is rapidly evolving into a probability. Now some military experts worry that an attack via EMP electromagnetic pulse on the US mainland might be a feasible option for Pyongyang. The signs are certainly there: The only conclusion any honest American citizen can come to is that the Republic is dead.
Once again the flags wave and the songs play as the parades march to celebrate another 4th of July. Picnic meals are eaten while children frolic in the warn sunshine of summer. Few people reflect on the true meaning that established the solemn commemoration of the nation's birth.
The reality of this post federation of independent state sovereignty is that a centralized federal behemoth has superseded the original intent of Thomas Jefferson's vision: Today the society that exists demands compliance or compels obedience by way of punishment.
Monday, July 03, Nikki Haley: It must now be a prerequisite of those who become an American ambassador to the UN to possess certain characteristics and traits, the most important of which are rabid warmonger, child killer, and outright liar. Remember it was Madeleine Albright when asked about the US blockading Iraq which prevented medicine and medical equipment from entering the country that resulted in the estimated death of a half a million children who coldly responded: Which included my UK house prices based analysis that was the most accurate predictor of the general election, however this time based on April house price data implied a Conservative win on seats.
So despite being the most accurate of all of the forecasts out there, nevertheless did get the election outcome wrong i. Nation-states are the defining feature of the modern political era. They give people a collective identity and a pride of place… even when their borders are artificially drawn, as they were in the Middle East. However, transnational issues like religion and ethnicity often get in the way of the notion of nationalism. A show about nothing. Still, an awful lot of voices tried to make it look like it was something life- and game-changing.
Comey shone more of an awkward light on himself rather than on Donald Trump, by admitting that he had leaked info on a private conversation with the president he served at the time. Not quite nothing, but very little to satisfy the anti-Trump crowd. Abolish Fractional Reserve Banking! The Trump Administration has presented the first part of its plan to overhaul a number of Wall Street financial regulations, many of which were enacted in the wake of the financial crisis.
It wants the Chinese to persuade the North Koreans to give up their nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs. Health care is now a huge, thorny political and economic issue, and the chart below shows one reason why. The US spends far more on health care than other developed nations, with worse outcomes by many measures.
Every day brings another scary headline from the Middle East — which makes it easy to treat them as background noise rather than a clear and present danger. But the latest batch is reminiscent of the Balkans circa , which means it may be time to tune back in.
Tuesday, June 20, North Korea: Is War the Inevitable Outcome? Daily reports of US warships and submarines moving in along the Korean Peninsula and unrelenting missile tests in North Korea have sparked worries that a strike may be imminent.
Will we end up in a war with North Korea, and what would be the consequences? A major concern after Brexit was that it will destroy the financial sector in the UK and and the EU since London is a financial hub. Washington is planning to extend sanctions against Russia, once again. Last Wednesday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson warned that Congress should not pass any legislation that would undercut "constructive dialogue" with Russia.
Yet, the Senate voted to advance a bipartisan agreement to launch new financial penalties on Russia and to let the Congress intervene before President Trump can lift sanctions. The residents Grenfell Tower have paid the heavy price for the cladding refurbishment craze that has been sweeping Britain for the past decade. One of 30 to 50 year old social housing tower blocks, many of which that should have been demolished but instead are being dolled up with cladding and insulation to reduce energy costs to make them externally more appealing to both residents, visitors and most importantly nearby affluent areas as was the case with Grenfell Tower, a pocket of social housing in Kensington, probably the most affluent area of Britain.
Having called the unnecessary "snap" elections in order to strengthen her political hand, the result actually reduced the number of seats held by the conservatives and delivered large gains to the opposition Labour party, which had seemed in disarray just a few months ago. Although she has announced no plans to step down, her position has been severely weakened, possibly fatally. More pointedly, the UK's hand in negotiating favorable Brexit terms has eroded substantially.
Besides creating significant ramifications for the European and global economy, the election also provides important lessons for the potential state of American politics. An area where millionaires can be found living within metres of taxi drivers, refugees and the other low paid workers necessary for the functioning of London.
The rich just could not stand the view form their mansions as they looked out upon modernist concrete tower blocks, so they rich got their way as most of the nations concrete tower blocks have been all cladded up. For all those supporters of President Franklin D. Roosevelt's war, many admire the exploits of the OSS in Europe. While historians for the allied legions adopt the account that circumstances dictated the creation and use of the British, Special Operations Executive , which Churchill proclaimed, to 'set Europe aflame'; the precedent left a heritage of intervention that few ever warned about the nature of counter-offensive missions.
However, if the debt trajectory slows as it did in that too will bring about painful consequences. In other words, all roads lead to trouble. That means attracting foreign investment is a necessary precondition for investing abroad.. China is increasingly desperate for foreign investment. Yet foreign companies are less and less interested in what it has to offer. Foreign direct investment grew at an annualized rate of They turned over intellectual property; entered into joint ventures as junior partners, essentially training their eventual competitors; and accepted restricted access to wide swathes of the economy.
Since the financial crisis, however, things have changed. This could have serious economic consequences. Due to shady invoicing — which many firms use to evade capital controls — the money flowing into China through its trade surplus has shrunk. For a country that relies on capital accumulation to sustain growth, this is a significant problem. Making matters worse, China maintains a quasi-pegged exchange rate, which requires balancing the inflow and outflow of capital.
Apple will launch its next-generation iPhone expected to be called the iPhone 8 or the iPhone Edition on September 12, and this chart from Guggenheim Securities analyst Robert Cihra gives you a good idea of the giant headache Apple needs that new phone to solve. It charts only the revenue growth of the company, broken out by product. In each of the last four years, Apple had one or more major product lines with shrinking sales.
The task facing Apple is not trivial. As this chart from Deutsche Bank shows, the iPhone tends to grow more slowly than the smartphone market as a whole — and the smartphone market has flatlined.
The looming showdown comes three weeks after militant attacks in Barcelona, the capital of Catalonia, and a seaside resort which killed 16 people and wounded more than The law was adopted with 72 votes in favour and 11 abstentions after 12 hours of often stormy debate in the regional assembly. Lawmakers who oppose independence for the wealthy northeastern region of Spain quit the chamber before the vote.
Shortly after the law was passed the president of Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont, and the rest of his cabinet signed a decree calling the referendum, presenting a show of unity in the face of threats of legal action by Madrid, which deems the plebiscite illegal.
At the same time, public prosecutors announced they would seek criminal charges for disobedience against the president of the Catalan parliament, Carme Forcadell, and other Catalan officials for allowing the vote on the referendum law. Emmanuel Macron will make Greece the launchpad for a major policy speech on the future of Europe as he starts his first official trip to the country on Thursday.
From the dramatic setting of the ancient Pnyx in Athens, the French president is expected to outline his vision for the continent in what is being called his most important overseas address since taking office in May. Amid the rocky hills of the Pnyx beneath the Acropolis, the speech will focus on the virtues of democracy as the European Union — and Greece — finally show signs of economic revival. It is a measure of the significance the Greek government is attaching to the visit that Macron is making the address from such an august setting.
From the earliest days of Athenian democracy, the Pnyx was a meeting place for popular assemblies. In more modern times its use has been limited to the rare photo op. The young president will be the first French leader to speak from it, in what Greeks are also calling a subliminal message of hope. Macron has been criticised at home for his carefully choreographed media appearances evoking the grandeur of eras past, and has seen his approval ratings drop dramatically. Macron, a former economy minister, has long advocated debt relief for Athens — echoing the view of its leftist-led government that without it the Greek economy can never fully recover.
The economic crisis continues to plague Greek households struggling too make ends meet — month in, month out. A survey conducted by Nielsen shows a decline in consumption and therefore the plight of thousands of families. Greeks cut on essential goods like milk and bread. The drop in the category of milk in the organized retail market reached 8.
Sales of essential consumer goods continue to drop, according to a Nielsen survey of the Greek market. Sales of milk, bread and alcoholic beverages are among the goods that suffer most. In the first half of the drop in the sale of milk reached 8. Sales of alcoholic beverages also recorded significant losses, as whiskey sales dropped by 6. Overall, retail trade lost 1. More pronounced downward trends were recorded in personal care products at 4. Sales of deodorants and diapers dropped by 7.
In household goods, chlorine dropped by 8. An earlier Nielsen survey has shown that food sales in Greece have dropped by 18 percent since , when the current economic crisis begun. In , food sales reached a record high, totalling However, as Greece entered the first bailout program in , the demand for food items started to drop.
The decrease was also attributed partly to the closing down of small grocery and convenience stores.. Edward Hopper Summer evening The most powerful Atlantic Ocean hurricane in recorded history bore down on the islands of the north-east Caribbean on Tuesday night local time, following a path predicted to then rake Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba before possibly heading for Florida over the weekend. Category 5 hurricanes are rare and are capable of inflicting life-threatening winds, storm surges and rainfall.
Hurricane Harvey, which last week devastated Houston, was category 4. Other islands in the path of the storm included the US and British Virgin Islands and Anguilla, a small, low-lying British island territory of about 15, people. Warm water is fuel for hurricanes and Irma is over water that is one degree celsius 1.
The 26C 79F water that hurricanes need goes about feet deep 80m , said Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the private forecasting service Weather Underground. Four other storms have had winds as strong in the overall Atlantic region but they were in the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico, which are usually home to warmer waters that fuel cyclones. This approach substitutes as a cash deposit. The evidence strongly suggests the regulators have done nothing to combat white-collar criminality in the mortgage market.
The Great Recession may be over, but eight years later we can still see the deep scars and unhealed wounds it left on the global economy. In an attempt to prevent an unpleasant revisit to the Stone Age, global governments have bailed out banks and the private sector. Ballooning government debt should have brought higher — much higher — interest rates. The concept of positive interest rates is straightforward. You take your savings, which you amass by forgoing current consumption — not buying a newer car or making fewer trips to fancy restaurants — and lend it to someone.
In exchange for your sacrifice, you receive interest payments. With negative interest rates, something quite different happens: More important, they highlight the bleak state of the global economy. In theory, low- and negative interest rates were supposed to reduce savings and stimulate spending. In practice, the opposite has happened: The savings rate has gone up. As interest rates on their deposits declined, consumers felt that now they had to save more to earn the same income.
Some countries resort to negative interest rates because they want to devalue their currencies. This strategy suffers from what economists call the fallacy of composition: As a country adopts negative interest rates, its currency will decline against others — arguably stimulating its export sector at the expense of other countries. But there is absolutely nothing proprietary about this strategy: Other governments will do the same, and in the end all will experience lowered consumption and a higher savings rate.
The European Central Bank may not have as much flexibility left in its bond-buying program as Mario Draghi insists. As the Governing Council kicks off discussion about the future of its asset purchases, the question that will loom large is how much wiggle room policy makers have to extend their 2. Not much, according to two economists. But working out how much space the central bank still has is fiendishly hard.
The 19th member, Greece, is excluded from the program. Germany could hit this mark as early as spring if the current pace of purchases is maintained, says Commerzbank Chief Economist Joerg Kraemer. Yet some rules of the program are more malleable, giving the ECB potential leeway. But they can deviate from those capital-key guidelines and have done so for months now. A good example is Germany, where debt-buying last month hit the lowest level since the program started more than two years ago.
That could ease the strain for some countries, but would still require the program to be wound down by the end of next year, he says. Frankfurt and Dublin are emerging as the clear favorites for post-Brexit relocation among U. The negotiations between London and Brussels are still ongoing and it remains unclear how many employees will have to be moved from London to other European cities.
At the moment, the disruption appears to be minimal compared to the overall size of the industry. But there are clear winners from the exit of some jobs from London with Frankfurt and Dublin perceived to be the top destinations for institutions that wish to continue working with clients across the EU. An event that shapes an entire nation is negotiated by just one segment of its population.
Not even a majority at that. May also has to contend with a leak of a draft plan for new immigration rules, which would end the free movement of workers on the day Britain leaves the EU, and impose restrictions on all but highly skilled workers from the region.
If amendments to the bill mean ministers have to get parliamentary approval for each regulation, they risk being held up by constant roadblocks. It is unclear what action Trump would take if he decided to again address Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, the program that he said he would end Tuesday with a six-month delay.
It is unclear if the GOP-led Congress, members of which voted to sink similar legislation in the past, can do so in the near future as it faces multiple crucial deadlines to approve legislation. There is no other way to solve the North Korean nuclear issue, save that of peaceful dialogue. The underground blast triggered a magnitude Foreign interventions in Iraq and Libya had convinced the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, that he needed nuclear weapons to survive, Putin said.
His children were killed, I think his grandson was shot, the whole country was destroyed and Saddam Hussein was hanged … We all know how this happened and people in North Korea remember well what happened in Iraq. Although it had no nuclear weapon, North Korea was producing plutonium, an action that almost led the United States to launch a pre-emptive strike against its plutonium facility. The reactors, however, were never completed. The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed in that the North had ceased production of plutonium three years earlier.
These are not the bad guys. The bad guys are the ones refusing to respect the sovereignty of North Korea or any other nation under the sun. The bad guys are the ones invading sovereign nations at will and slaughtering civilians with explosives dropped from flying killing machines. The fact that something so simple and so obvious is not universally known in America speaks to the phenomenal efficacy of its corporate media propaganda machine. Because of that propaganda machine, Americans sincerely think that the bad guys are the tiny little nations that America bullies in proxy conflicts to maintain global hegemony.
This doctrine of American supremacy is founded on the belief that the United States was selected by destiny to lead the world when it won the Cold War, a divine right of sorts to dominion over the entire planet. This is the real evil. They should be allowed to have that, but their US-backed government is talking about bringing American tactical nukes back to the Korean Peninsula.
The time for rhetorical reservations is over. Things have to be called by their name to make it possible for a co-ordinated democratic reaction to be initiated, above all in the public services.
Liberalism was a doctrine derived from the philosophy of Enlightenment, at once political and economic, which aimed at imposing on the state the necessary distance for ensuring respect for liberties and the coming of democratic emancipation. It was the motor for the arrival, and the continuing progress, of Western democracies. Neoliberalism is a form of economism in our day that strikes at every moment and every sector of our community.
It is a form of extremism. Fascism may be defined as the subordination of every part of the State to a totalitarian and nihilistic ideology. I argue that neoliberalism is a species of fascism because the economy has brought under subjection not only the government of democratic countries but also every aspect of our thought. The state is now at the disposal of the economy and of finance, which treat it as a subordinate and lord over it to an extent that puts the common good in jeopardy.
The austerity that is demanded by the financial milieu has become a supreme value, replacing politics. Saving money precludes pursuing any other public objective. It is reaching the point where claims are being made that the principle of budgetary orthodoxy should be included in state constitutions.
A mockery is being made of the notion of public service. The nihilism that results from this makes possible the dismissal of universalism and the most evident humanistic values: There is no place any more even for classical economic theory: Neoliberalism has its Newspeak and strategies of communication that enable it to deform reality.
In this spirit, every budgetary cut is represented as an instance of modernisation of the sectors concerned. If some of the most deprived are no longer reimbursed for medical expenses and so stop visiting the dentist, this is modernisation of social security in action.
That will not end well. Even if these countries gave in and admitted refugees, how would they be treated? The ruling means that Hungary and Slovakia could face fines if they refuse to abide by the quota system. The ruling is a victory for EU immigration policy, which has divided the bloc as nearly 1. Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary argue the mandatory quota system violates their sovereignty and threatens their societies.
The legal challenge was also backed by Poland, which alongside Hungary has not taken in any asylum seekers. Slovakia and the Czech Republic have only taken in a few dozen asylum seekers. China will expand its agricultural use of environment-damaging plastic film to boost crop production even as authorities try to curb soil pollution, a government scientist said.
Use of the translucent material may exceed 2 million tons by and cover 22 million hectares, according to Yan Changrong, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences in Beijing.
Those features can bolster cotton, maize and wheat yields, while enabling crops to be grown across a wider area.
That means farmers are compelled to keep using it to boost production and income, said Yan, as he flicked through slides showing pollution in the northwest region of Xinjiang. The material enables crops to be grown in both drier and colder environments. Stanley Kubrick Walking the streets of New York All for your own good. Rogoff is one scary dude. Negative interest rates will be needed in the next major recession or financial crisis, and central banks should do more to prepare the ground for such policies, according to leading economist Kenneth Rogoff.
Quantitative easing is not as effective a tonic as cutting rates to below zero, he believes. Central banks around the world turned to money creation in the credit crunch to stimulate the economy when interest rates were already at rock bottom. In a new paper published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives the professor of economics at Harvard University argues that central banks should start preparing now to find ways to cut rates to below zero so they are not caught out when the next recession strikes.
Traditionally economists have assumed that cutting rates into negative territory would risk pushing savers to take their money out of banks and stuff the cash — metaphorically or possibly literally — under their mattress. As electronic transfers become the standard way of paying for purchases, Mr Rogoff believes this is a diminishing risk. The growth of electronic payment systems and the increasing marginalisation of cash in legal transactions creates a much smoother path to negative rate policy today than even two decades ago.
Countries can scrap larger denomination notes to reduce the likelihood of cash being held in substantial quantities, he suggests. This is also a potentially practical idea because cash tends now to be used largely for only small transactions. Law enforcement officials may also back the idea to cut down on money laundering and tax evasion.
The key consequence from an economic point of view is that forcing savers to keep cash in an electronic format would make it easier to levy a negative interest rate. That would be substantially better than trying to use QE or forward guidance as central bankers have attempted in recent years.
Pretty much everything you need to know, though, can be found in one chart: Capital, also known as equity, is the money that banks get from shareholders and retained earnings. Unlike debt, it has the advantage of absorbing losses, a feature that makes individual banks and the whole system more resilient. Bank executives typically prefer to use less equity and more debt — that is, more leverage — because this magnifies returns in good times.
Hence, capital levels can serve as an indicator of the balance of power between bankers and regulators concerned about financial stability. The downward slope in the first several years demonstrates the extent to which leverage got out of hand before the crisis. That proved to be a fatal miscalculation: A crippled banking system tanked the economy and had to be rescued at taxpayer expense.
After the crisis, regulators pushed banks to get stronger. Researchers at the Minneapolis Fed, for example, estimate that capital would have to more than double again to bring the risk of bailouts down to an acceptable level. The report said the data showed that 10 years on from the onset of the financial crisis, the consequences of misconduct continue to hang over the banking sector.
Chris Stears, research director of the foundation, writes in the latest report: And persistent level of conduct cost provisioning is worrying. RBS set aside extra provisions for fines and legal costs largely related to a forthcoming penalty from the US Department of Justice for mis-selling toxic bonds in the run-up to the financial crisis. Ultra-low borrowing costs had encouraged large firms to issue debt to buy back their own stock, thereby providing a tailwind to earnings-per-share growth.
Heading into , equity strategists anticipated that the buyback bonanza would continue in earnest, fueled in part by an expected tax reform plan that would provide companies with repatriated cash to invest. Fed Chair Janet Yellen keeps citing consumer confidence and jobs as reasons consumer spending and inflation will pick up. Curiously, the New York Fed Survey on Consumer Spending Expectations keeps trending lower and lower, despite survey-high expectations for wage growth.
The report for July was released today. I downloaded the survey results and produced the following charts. Income projections are volatile but at least they are trending higher across the board. Spending projections are less volatile and trending lower at every level. Those projections were in negative territory in April.
Instead, she relies on consumer confidence numbers that tend to track the stock market or gasoline prices more than anything else. Nowadays, it is easy to get caught up in the day to day of markets with main stream media pumping the hot stock or warning of market crashes that rarely come.
Focusing on the longer term cycles is how you stay with the trend, reduce portfolio churn and costs. Longer term cycles are largely influenced by demographics. Boomers were entering the workforce in the s and started having children Millennials in the early s. The surge in home purchases, appliances, and the multitude of things you buy for kids helped drive the economy for 30 years.
The giant buildup in credit that I have covered in a previous article is another reason for a year bull market. The potential problem now is Boomers are hitting retirement, and roughly 10, Boomers retire each day. The above chart is the age distribution of the U.
You can see the cliff of Boomers that are turning 70 this year. There are a couple ramifications of Boomers retiring. First is the moment they quit their job or sell their business, they are on a finite budget from there on out.
Second, fewer people will be available for work down the road leaving less tax payers contributing to already stressed government budgets. Lastly, Boomers are incentivized to retire at This means that Boomers are heavily relying on Social Security or they have to work longer, which is currently evidenced by the following chart from the BLS. Boomers have essentially garnered the majority of wage gains and now are working longer either out of necessity or preference.
You might be thinking the surge in Millennials entering the work force will save the day, but due to the above facts, younger generations have to wait longer to move up the corporate ladder or have to attain levels of higher education to receive an adequate salary.
As a result, student debt has risen exponentially in the U. The credit crisis that began in August , the ensuing banking crash and global recession. One bumper episode from the long-ago past, when the iPhone was a newborn and Amy Winehouse still made records. Now done, dusted, reformed and resolved. Or so one assumes, from the official self-congratulation. The European commission marks the 10th anniversary of the credit crisis by trumpeting: The head of the derivatives industry body, ISDA, admits: Everyone knows history is written by the victors, but this is something else: First, it was working- and middle-class Britons who paid for the mess, who are still paying for it now and who will keep paying for it decades from now.
Second, the crash has prompted almost no fundamental reckoning or reform. And, most importantly, the combination of those first two factors means the crash that began in cannot be consigned to the past. For politicians and financiers to treat the crash as history brings to mind Stephen Dedalus in Ulysses: The economy tanked, Gordon Brown got booted out — and David Cameron pretended a private banking catastrophe was a crisis of a supposedly profligate public sector.
You know what happened next: Debt racked up through the greed of financiers being dumped on the poor, the young and people with disabilities in what must rank as the biggest bait and switch in postwar Britain. I say that, but we have only had seven years of austerity. If Philip Hammond stays in No 11 and sticks to plan one must hope he does neither , the cuts will continue until the middle of the next decade.
After , who knows what will remain of our councils, our welfare state and our public realm. One truism of this era is that the average British worker earns less after inflation than they did when RBS nearly died. Most of us have seen not a recovery, but a ripping up of our social contract — so that over 7 million Britons are now in precarious employment.
But the highest earners are way ahead of where they were in Government debt has shot up under the Conservatives, but so too has household borrowing. Were the UK to crash again, its government no longer has the political capital nor the fiscal headroom to save the financial system. That, in a nutshell, is the central lesson from quantitative easing, and is one that could alone have dramatically altered our own challenging experience in the recent speculative half-cycle.
Instead, investors were driven to believe that they had no other alternative but to continue their yield-seeking speculation. In the face of zero interest rates, one had to wait for market internals to deteriorate before adopting a hard negative market outlook.
At present, we observe neither zero interest rates, nor uniformly favorable market internals. The chart below shows the percentage of U. The deterioration and widening dispersion in market internals is no longer subtle.
The investigation is likely to cast a shadow over relations with China, the largest U. Experts on China trade policy said the long lead time could allow Beijing to discuss some of the issues raised by Washington without being seen to cave to pressure under the threat of reprisals. Despite threats to do so, it has declined to name China a currency manipulator and delayed broader national security probes into imports of foreign steel and aluminum that could indirectly affect China. According to the statement, North Korean products arrived at Chinese ports before the ban would be allowed to enter the country.
Import applications of products from North Korea will be halted from September 5. Meanwhile, Chinese companies are still allowed to import coal from third countries via the North Korean port of Rason.
China is by far the largest trading partner of North Korea. In April, the Chinese General Administration of Customs said trade between the two countries in the first quarter increased North Korea said last week it was finalizing plans to launch four missiles into the waters near the U. Pacific territory of Guam, and its army would report the strike plan to leader Kim Jong Un and wait for his order.
South Korean and U. Yet areas of substantial uncertainty remain: Australian government minister Christopher Pyne accused the ALP of being part of a conspiracy to bring down the government. Joyce made the admission after media inquiries on the subject, but it subsequently also emerged that on 9 August the New Zealand Labour MP Chris Hipkins submitted two written questions to the internal affairs minister, Peter Dunne, in parliament, both of an unusual nature.
The deep economic crisis — which has hit young people especially hard and is identified as a key reason behind the country now having one of the lowest birth rates in the world — is cited as the primary cause of this decline, which has accelerated in recent years.
That is expected to drop to 9. This percentage is currently the second highest in Europe, after Italy. Greece will have the highest ratio of pensioners to workers in Europe by Italy has seen a sharp fall in the number of migrants arriving on its shores, a decline that has left experts scrambling for an explanation.
Summer is traditionally the peak season for migrants attempting the hazardous crossing of the Mediterranean from North Africa to Europe. Many migrants are from poor sub-Saharan Africa, fleeing violence in their home country or desperate for a better life in prosperous Europe. One mooted reason for the fall is tougher action by the Libyan coastguard. The force which has been strengthened by help from the European Union EU , which trained about personnel over the winter, while Italy has provided patrol vessels, recently supported by Italian warships in Libyan waters.
Another reason put forward to explain the decline is tougher action by NGOs who have been accused by critics of colluding with smugglers to pick up migrants at sea to prevent them from drowning. But these organisations have been involved in only a fraction of migrant rescues — and three NGO vessels are still operating in the hope of picking up those in need.
Italian newspapers which, just a few weeks ago, were accusing NGOs of abetting an influx that seemed uncontrollable have now switched to reports on the terrifying conditions faced by migrants in Libya. Pablo Picasso Etude Pour Mercure Emerging markets such as China are showing the same signs that their economies are overheating as the US and the UK demonstrated before the financial crisis of , according to the annual report of the Bank for International Settlements BIS.
The BIS, which is sometimes known as the central bank for central banks and counts Bank of England Governor Mark Carney among its members, warned of trouble ahead for the world economy. The group also warned about the threat poised by rising debt in countries like China and the rise in protectionism such as in the US under Donald Trump, City AM reported. A sudden flare-up of inflation which forces up interest rates and hurts growth, financial stress linked to the contraction phase of financial cycles, a rise in protectionism and weaker consumption not offset by stronger investment.
Major central banks should press ahead with interest rate increases, the Bank for International Settlements said on Sunday, while recognizing that some turbulence in financial markets will have to be negotiated along the way. The BIS, an umbrella body for leading central banks, said in one of its most upbeat annual reports for years that global growth could soon be back at long-term average levels after a sharp improvement in sentiment over the past year.
New technologies and working practices are likely to be playing a roll in suppressing inflation, it said, though normal impulses should kick in if unemployment continues to drop.
Even if there are some short-term bumps in the road it would be much more advisable to stay the course and begin that process of normalization. The BIS identified four main risks to the global outlook in the medium-term. Japanese banks have more than doubled their borrowing and lending in dollars since , leaving them vulnerable to funding shocks such as those that exacerbated the last financial crisis, the Bank for International Settlements warned in a report released Sunday.
The report also cited Canadian lenders for following a similar trend, almost doubling their dollar exposure since the crisis.
European firms, by contrast, have reduced exposure to dollars since the crisis, the report said. German banks, which had among the highest net dollar positions in , now have matching assets and liabilities denominated in the currency after cutting dollar assets by about half.
Negative Sales Taxes People hoard cash, especially the miserly wealthy. We need to unlock that cash and put it to work. To free up this money, I propose negative sales taxes. The more you spend, the more money you get back as a direct tax credit against income taxes. I leave specific details to economists Larry Summers and Paul Krugman.
What can possibly go wrong? However, all negative interest rates have done is to get those with money to hoard bonds. Bond buyers effectively bet on capital gains of still more negative rates. I have just the solution. No one will want them. Hedge funds and pension plans will dump sovereign bonds en masse. This will allow governments to buy every bond in existence immediately, if not sooner. As soon as the government corners the bond market at effectively zero cost , debt and interest on the debt will truly be owed to itself.
National Tax Free Lottery Japan desperately needs to get people to spend, continually. Once again, I have a logical proposal. Each week, a random day of the week is selected and separately a random taxpayer ID is selected. If there is no winner, the amount rolls over. Hav-a-Kid Demographics in Japan are a huge problem. Although various incentives have been tried, none of them have gone far enough. I propose a reduction in income taxes for everyone starting a family. The following scale applies.
Subsidized housing, free healthcare, free schooling, and no income taxes for thirty years. Those with one new child in the last five years get full credit if they add at least one more child in the next five years.
The Bank of Japan may or may not be tapering, but that may soon be moot because by the time Kuroda decides whether he will buy less bonds, the bond market may no longer work.
The year JGB yield again closed at 0. Meanwhile, the implied volatility of JGBs tumbled to the lowest level since January for the same reason we recently speculated may be the primary driver behind the global collapse in volatility: This means that trading in newly issued year debt has become so infrequent that broker Japan Bond Trading has seen days when no bonds trade hands. Here is what Peters believes will happen over the next 8 months, a period which will begin with an increasingly tighter Fed and conclude with a market avalanche:.
Next February is a good guess, as recessions and market downturns tend to lag the credit market by about 9 months. My own scenario is based not on cycles or technicals or fundamentals, but on the psychology of the topping process, which tends to follow this basic script: When there are too many bearish reports of gloomy data, and too many calls to go long volatility or go to cash, the market perversely goes up, not down.
This negativity creates a classic Wall of Worry that markets can continue climbing. The Bears betting on a decline based on deteriorating fundamentals are crushed by the steady advance. As Bears give up, the window for a Spot of Bother decline creaks open, however grudgingly, as central banks make noises about ending their extraordinary monetary policies by raising interest rates a bit so they can lower them when the next recession grabs the global economy by the throat.
As bearish short interest and bets on higher volatility fade, insiders go short. And since traders have been well-trained to Buy the Dips, the Spot of Bother is quickly retraced. Nonetheless, doubts remain and fundamental data is still weak; this overhang of negativity rebuilds the wall of Worry. Some Bears will reckon the weakened market will double-top, i.
I think the Fed has already done that. By manoeuvering themselves into a position they cannot escape from. Why did the Federal Reserve Fed hike rates last week, and what will its policy look like in the future? This expansion is 96 months old. Feels like a depression to me. So that explains why the Fed is raising interest rates. They would like to keep going; they would like to get them up to 3, 3. The recession will come first. We can cut them back down to zero. Well, now what do you do?
You do a new round of QE. No one knows what it is. You destroy the market. Rates would go up, putting us in recession, and the housing market would collapse. While investors seem to have come to a consensus view that the U. There is room for the greenback to strengthen. But, he thinks the Fed will be more hawkish than what is currently expected, which will support the U.
Treasury curve and that will be supportive of the U. Forrester said the divergence between the unemployment rate and inflation is not unique to the U. Globally, economies face structural issues such as ageing populations and automation replacing jobs, which could increase the risks of a recession.
But, he said U. We do expect wages growth to accelerate and inflation expectation s to pick back up. The Philips curve relates to a supposed inverse relationship between the level of unemployment and the inflation rate. Republicans looking to rewrite the U. That deduction affects everyone from titans of Wall Street who load up on junk bonds to pay for multibillion-dollar corporate takeovers to wheat farmers in the Midwest looking to make ends meet before harvest.
Yet a House Republican proposal to eliminate the deduction has gotten relatively little sustained public attention or lobbying pressure. Thanks in part to the deduction, the U. It also is widely accessible. Getting rid of the deduction for net interest expense, as House Republicans propose, would alter finance. That bias, he said, hurts companies built around innovation, which tend to not have the physical assets that banks usually require as collateral.
Where is he going to get equity? Party leaders expect the capital write-offs would encourage more investment and growth and greater worker productivity, but not the debt often associated with it. Dijsselbloem et al made a big circus about how taxpayers would never again foot the bill. It was never worth a thing.
The promise that the tax payer will not stand in to rescue failing banks anymore is broken for good. I am very disappointed that the commission has approved this course of action. By doing so the Commission has massively undermined the credibility of the Banking Union. If the common set of rules governing banking resolution is so blatantly ignored, there is no point in negotiating any further on a common deposit insurance scheme.
The precondition for a working Banking Union is a common understanding of its rules. If such a basic common understanding is lacking, there is no point in further deepening the Banking Union and mutualising risk.
Padoan added that both banks would operate normally on Monday. The deal is meant to ward off the threat of a bank run, by reassuring nervous savers and deterring them from withdrawing their funds when branches reopen.
In their meetings with hundreds of funds from the US and Europe, the representatives of Greek companies said that while the recent Eurogroup decision may have banished uncertainty about Greece, the government will need to put in some serious effort and work in addressing the issues of speed and efficiency. The main subject at the two investment events was the titanic effort being made by Greek banks to reduce the bad loans in their portfolios.
That said, I wonder how the German minister fails to see that the U. What else would he want? A nuclear war with China and Russia? Germany may wish to think about whether it is in its interest to fuel and broaden the points of friction with the United States. In my view, Berlin should leave the big power dealings alone.
Washington and Beijing are engaged on a broad range of issues to build a historically unique relationship between an established superpower and a runner-up that needs space to develop and contribute to the world in peace and harmony.
In trying to do that, the two countries are blazing totally new trails of modern statecraft. Ubiquitous analogies of Sparta an established power and Athens a rapidly developing strategic competitor , and their ensuing Peloponnesian War, are worthless in the case of countries with huge nuclear arsenals and ground, sea, air and airspace delivery vehicles.
China got that message and is doing something about it. In the first four months of this year, American export sales to China soared Germany has to make up its mind with regard to the European integration. These countries will run to the U. Mountains and rivers are revered as sacred in Tibetan Buddhism, and the extensive construction, which began in , has alarmed locals who believe they can only live peacefully if the nature around them is protected.
Most would not dare remove so much as a single stone from the mountain Palshab Drakar, an important pilgrimage site, she said. Villagers are bracing for mass relocations, an experience that has previously caused havoc elsewhere in China.
But the 28, yuan moving fee his family received per person will not last long once their crops are submerged and they have no other sources of income. Construction worker Zeng Qingtao said the state-owned Power Construction Corporation had brought in some 10, employees, but none are locals.
Austerity is over, proclaimed the IMF this week. Austerity is not over. You can ask many of those same people about that. Austerity is over as governments across the rich world increased spending last year and plan to keep their wallets open for the foreseeable future.
After five years of belt tightening, the IMF says the era of spending cuts that followed the financial crisis is now at an end. In Greece, the government did not increase spending in Or does it not count it as part of the rich world?
Something Freudian, wishful thinking perhaps? And neither are the rest of the Troika. They are still demanding measures that are dead certain to plunge the Greeks much further into their abyss in the future. As my friend Steve Keen put it to me recently: An excellent example of this is the Greek primary budget surplus. The Troika has been demanding that it reach 3.
Which is the worst thing it could do, at least for the Greek people and the Greek economy. Not for those who seek to buy Greek assets on the cheap. It is also a condition for receiving the next phase of the current bailout. So they should always be able to do that in every subsequent year. But never a surplus. Greek Primary Surplus Chokes Market.
The two calculations differ in methodology, but it is the surplus attained according to the bailout rules that matters for assessing the course of the program. This was also the first time since that Greece achieved a general government surplus — equal to 0. There is a downside to the news, however, as the figures point to overtaxation imposed last year combined with excessive containment of expenditure.
On the one hand, the impressive result could be a valuable weapon for the government in its negotiations with creditors to argue that it is on the right track to fiscal streamlining and can achieve or even exceed the agreed targets.
The more such surplus it has, the less debt relief will be needed. Greek PM Tsipras should never have accepted any such thing, neither the surplus demands nor the fact that they affect debt relief, since both assure a further demise of the economy. That means the Greek government is taking money OUT of the economy. An economy from which so much has already vanished. Money that could have been used to spend inside that economy, saving jobs, and keeping people fed and sheltered.
For a family of 3. Here are a few there are many more where these came from:. Pensions have been cut some 12 times already. More cuts are in the pipeline. On top of the pension cuts and the primary surplus requirement, there are the tax hikes.
So the vast majority of Greeks have ever less money to spend, the government takes money out of the economy to achieve a surplus, and on top of that everything gets more expensive because of rising taxes. Did I ever mention businesses must pay their taxes up front for a full year? And then strangling it some more. There may have been all sorts of things wrong in Greece, including financially.
But that is true to some degree for every country. But that would seem to mean the EU must help fight that corruption, not suffocate the poor. It asked for a legal opinion on the move but refuses to publish that opinion.
As if Europeans have no right to know what the legal status is of what their central bank does. Maybe someone should ask for a legal opinion on that too. The surplus requirements will be the nail in the coffin that do Greece in. And that is the number the country is required to cut even more. Where do you think GDP is headed in that scenario? And unemployment, and the economy at large?
The question must be: It has to be one of the two; those are all the flavors we have. You can perhaps have an idea that a country can spend money on wrong, wasteful things. Necessities and waste are mutually exclusive. What makes it worse is that this remains hidden because barely a soul knows what deflation is.
Which is why taxes should never be counted towards inflation; it would mean all a government has to do to raise inflation is to raise taxes; a truly dumb idea. Which is nevertheless used everywhere on a daily basis. And in Greece both are falling rapidly. The primary surplus requirements make it that much worse. It really is the worst thing one could invent for the country.
Not in wasteful ways, but in ways that allow for people to buy food and clothing and pay for rent and power. That can only make things worse. And if the Greek economy deteriorates further, how can the country ever repay the debts it supposedly has?
Wyland Stanley Indian guides and Nash auto at Covelo stables. Scaring people does that. He lives at home with his mother, drives an old Honda and rarely shops. He still salts away his money in plain-vanilla bank accounts. He sees bank accounts, which offer minuscule interest rates on deposits despite negative short-term rates, as the only way to save.
More are working low-paying and temporary jobs with no benefits. There will be no tax cut. There will be no infrastructure stimulus. There will be just one giant fiscal bloodbath over a debt ceiling that has to be increased and no one wants to vote for.
So, can the Trump bump in the stock market keep going? It is based on pure hopium and not any analysis at all as what it will take to push through a big tax cut. Donald Trump is in a trap. Yet, he wants more defense spending, not less. He wants drastic sweeping tax cuts for corporations and individuals. He wants to spend more money on border security and law enforcement. He wants this big trillion dollar infrastructure program.
It will then be law. It will be a hard stop. By summer, they will be out of cash. Then we will be in the mother of all debt ceiling crises. Everything will grind to a halt. I think we will have a government shutdown. There will not be Obama Care repeal and replace. As it goes down, it will start triggering selling, and then it will be like an avalanche..
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